By Ebrahim Beheshti
Staff writer
Russian president on Wednesday visited the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, followed by hosting his Iranian counterpart, Ebrahim Raisi, the next day. These diplomatic visits occurred against the backdrop of an arrest warrant issued by the International Criminal Court (ICC) for Vladimir Putin on charges of war crimes in Ukraine, dated March 17, 2023.
He had previously visited Kyrgyzstan and China. However, his visits to the UAE and Saudi Arabia, as allies of the United States in the region, were more significant. Iran Daily discussed the Russian president’s trip with Mahmoud Shoori, an international affairs expert specializing in Russian issues.
IRAN DAILY: In your opinion, besides negotiating for bilateral exchanges, did the Russian president’s visit to the UAE and Saudi Arabia have any specific political message or goal?
Shoori: Certainly, it had a specific political message. After the start of the Ukraine war and widespread Western sanctions led by the US against Moscow, a crucial issue for Russia was to demonstrate that the country is not isolated. Russians have said that only a few countries worldwide follow the West’s sanction policies against the country, and most states maintain their previous relations with Russia. Now it seems that political and economic relations between Russia and many countries in the world are normal.
Therefore, Putin’s visit to the UAE and Saudi Arabia, which are considered allies of the US, sends a message that Moscow is not in isolation. Both the UAE and Saudi Arabia acted in a grey area towards Russia amid the Ukraine war. The UAE not only has not reduced its economic relations with Russia but has increased them. A significant portion of Russia’s needs is supplied through the UAE. Russia and Saudi Arabia have always engaged in negotiations regarding the oil market, and they continue to do so. Therefore, Putin’s trip, in addition to its bilateral economic goals, also had an international political aspect, emphasizing the inefficacy of Western sanctions against the country.
Regardless, Western sanctions against Russia have created challenges for the country, as President Putin had not undertaken multiple foreign trips before. However, it seems that with the prolongation of the Ukraine war and the continued conflict in Gaza, a breathing space has been created for Russia.
President Putin, nonetheless, exercised caution during his travels to foreign countries due to the International Criminal Court’s indictment that labeled him a war criminal. In countries that have accepted the jurisdiction of the International Criminal Court, a judge can issue an arrest warrant, making travel to these countries risky for Mr. Putin. However, for countries that have not accepted the jurisdiction of the International Criminal Court, or have not provided assurances of compliance with its rulings, it is not problematic for the Russian president.
Nevertheless, the longer the Ukraine war persists, the more it is in Russia’s favor in terms of the international landscape. Countries that cut or reduced their relations with Russia under Western sanctions and the onset of Ukraine war gradually adjusted their positions and moved towards revitalizing relations, seeking to benefit from engagements with Moscow.
In the news, it’s mentioned that Mr. Putin will run for the presidential election in 2024. Do you think Putin has tangible achievements that ensure his victory?
There is no doubt that Putin will run for the presidency again, and he will likely win, as there is no serious competition in the field. Recent polls show he enjoys a popularity rating of 60 to 70 percent. He undoubtedly envisions successes for himself, especially considering his resistance to Western pressures over the past two years. He is currently engaged in a war, and naturally, he wants to bring an end to this conflict himself. Therefore, one can anticipate his victory in the elections.
Do you think there will be any changes in the current situation of the Ukraine war until the presidential elections in Russia and the US in 2024?
No, currently, there is no prospect for a change in the war front. It doesn’t seem that both sides are tired of the war or showing signs of a willingness to reconcile. So, the most foreseeable option is the continuation of this war of attrition. The best-case scenario is a cease-fire agreement rather than peace.
Trump is a serious candidate for the US presidential election. If Trump wins, how do you think the Ukraine war will evolve? Trump has claimed he can end the war within 24 hours.
It’s too early to discuss the outcome of the US elections. Even if Trump wins, he won’t be the ultimate decision-maker on the Ukraine war. European countries support Ukraine and their opinion is also important. However, Ukrainian opinions also matter.
But a change in US policy in supporting Ukraine and Trump’s pressure on Europeans might force them to accept a temporary agreement with Russia.
